When Fortune Strikes: The Logic Behind Rare Successes
Rare successes are treated as random events because they are characterized by the absence of obvious, constant causes. That is, when luck manifests itself in a singular and unpredictable manner, we tend to perceive it as the result of pure chance rather than a systematic or conditioned set of factors.For example, as noted in source link txt, "Unusualness, diversity, and lack of causation are the hallmarks of a random event. The more frequently the same random, uncaused event repeats, the more incredible it seems to us that it will occur again; regarding someone who hits the target or wins every time, we think with a hint of schadenfreude: perhaps (since 'perhaps' always carries a known degree of probability) they will miss or lose; if it rains for entire weeks, each day we grow more hopeful and convinced that it will stop. But all our assumptions immediately change as soon as we discover or even suspect the cause of the event. Then, when making a judgment, we no longer focus on whether it happens often or rarely; all our attention shifts from the event to its cause." This means that rare success is seen as spontaneous and unconditioned by stable factors because the absence of repeatability and a clear causal link turns it into pure chance.Thus, the lack of systematic repeatability and an identifiable causal connection explains why rare successes are perceived as random events rather than as the outcome of stable, consistent factors.Supporting citation(s):"Unusualness, diversity, and lack of causation are the hallmarks of a random event. The more frequently the same random, uncaused event repeats, the more incredible it seems to us that it will occur again; regarding someone who hits the target or wins every time, we think with a hint of schadenfreude: perhaps (since 'perhaps' always carries a known degree of probability) they will miss or lose; if it rains for entire weeks, each day we grow more hopeful and convinced that it will stop. But all our assumptions immediately change as soon as we discover or even suspect the cause of the event. Then, when making a judgment, we no longer focus on whether it happens often or rarely; all our attention shifts from the event to its cause." (source: link txt)